(April 28 – May 2, 2025)
Introduction
As we head into the final trading days of April and open the door to May, the S&P 500 futures (ES) are coming off a sharp rally from the April 24th swing low at 5127. Fueled by bullish momentum, technical breakouts, and favorable options positioning, ES now trades around 5549-5550.
But with price pressing into critical overhead resistance zones derived from both Options Open Interest and Square of 9 projections, this week becomes a tactical battlefield.
This is my personal forecast and workbook to prepare for every scenario: where I expect price to move, where to press advantage, and where to defend profits.
Big Picture Outlook
Momentum remains bullish early this week. The strong push above the key 5440-5450 zone and the 5527 Square of 9 180° target validates bullish control.
However, the market now approaches the last “clean air” zone between 5527 and 5600-5615, where major options walls and Square of 9 resistance converge. This suggests the probability of a more volatile, indecisive environment as we get deeper into the week.
Staying tactical and emotionless will be critical.
Most Important Levels This Week
Option Open Interest Walls:
- 5450 — Huge put/call wall (prior battleground)
- 5500 — Minor psychological level
- 5600 — Heavy call wall resistance
- 5700 — Final psychological/options ceiling
Square of 9 Levels (based only on April 24 swing low at 5127):
- 5527 — 180° up (already tagged Friday)
- 5615 — 270° up (next major resistance magnet)
- 5356 — Key structural support if momentum fails
My Personal Trading Map
Primary Gameplan:
| Scenario | My Move |
|---|---|
| Above 5527 | Stay tactical long, targeting 5600-5615 |
| Between 5550-5600 | Press advantage lightly, be ready for fast moves |
| Into 5600-5615 | Scale out, reduce risk, and look for exhaustion |
| Above 5615 | Small speculative long toward 5700 if volume supports |
| Breakdown below 5527 | Flip to cautious; risk retests of 5500/5440 |
| Breakdown below 5440 | Flip to full defensive posture; target 5398/5356 |
Timing Windows:
- Monday-Tuesday: Likely continuation push attempt (low volume = easier trend maintenance)
- Wednesday-Thursday: High risk of major volatility; watch if topping starts around 5600+
- Friday: Likely profit-taking window or trend reversal catalyst
Emotional Strategy
This week isn’t about predicting every tick. It’s about:
- Staying long while momentum is strong.
- Scaling out methodically at known resistance (especially 5600-5615).
- Being emotionally ready to flip defensive if the market shows exhaustion signals.
The key lesson from this week is not to be greedy at the top.
Visual Cheat Sheet
Current: ~5549-5552
UP Target: 5600-5615 (take profits aggressively)
Extreme UP: 5700 (only if 5615 breaks with strength)
Warning if under 5527
Sell signal if under 5440Closing Personal Forecast
This is the stage of the rally where the best money is often made — and often lost — based purely on discipline.
I expect a potential “melt-up” early in the week toward 5600-5615. After that, serious caution is needed.
My motto this week:
“Respect momentum early. Respect exhaustion later.”
Good luck and good discipline to everyone trading ES this week.